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Poker Strategy: Pot Odds
(April 11, 2006)
Understanding pot odds is a crucial necessity in the development of every poker player. If you are playing online, knowing the percentages is vital since you have none of the traditional methods of learning more about your opponent’s hand at your disposal (reading tells, etc.). Many new players are overwhelmed by the thought of crunching numbers while concentrating on other things, such as maintaining composure and deciphering their opponent’s intentions. They feel that applying pot odds is something to be left to the pros. However, you do not have to be a math wizard to utilize pot odds. This article is an attempt to simplify the concept and hopefully you can begin using them to your advantage straight away.
What are pot odds?
You will often hear the term ‘pot odds’ bandied about by pros and amateurs alike. Without a sound understanding of the concept, you are really limiting the chances you have of becoming a successful and well-rounded player.
Simply put, pot odds are the relationship between the size of the pot and the money you must place on your next bet, in order to stay in the hand. For example, if there is $20 in the pot and your next call is $4, you pot odds are 5:1. Clearly, the higher the odds, the more attractive it is to call the bet.
The most important thing about pot odds is understanding the concept and why staying in with certain hands loses money and staying in with others makes money. To understand the concept, consider this simple sentence: “If the odds of you getting the card you need to make your hand are less than the pot odds, you should bet.”
Size of the Pot
Players should always be aware of the size of the pot. In Limit poker, one should count the number of bets inside the pot rather than the amount of money. After the bets double, count the bigger bets as two bets. When playing Pot-Limit and No-Limit, it can be quite difficult keeping track of the size of the pot, however you must still attempt to determine the approximate amount in order to accurately calculate your pot odds.
How to Use Pot Odds
Your outs are the unseen cards that will complete or improve your hand to make it the winning hand. By determining the number of outs in relation to your pot odds, you can decide if it is worthwhile to continue.
The most common hands to which you hope to draw are straights (with 8 outs) and flushes (with 9 outs). This means that the whole pot (including any other bets made this round) has to be about 5 times the size of the bet you are calling, in order for it to be a worthwhile call.
Calculating the number of outs is also quite simple. For example, in a game of Texas Hold’em you are dealt J, 10 as pocket cards and the flop shows 9, 2, Q. In order to make your straight, you need to see either an 8 or a K on the turn or the river. Now, you know there are 8 possible cards that will make your hand, four 8s and four Ks.
The next step is to subtract how many cards you have seen, which is 5 (your pocket cards and the flop), from how many you haven’t seen, which is 47 (52 minus the five you know). Now, stay with me, for this is important. The formula used to determine your odds of drawing your card is easy: Cards that won’t help you versus cards that will help you. In this case, it is 39:8, or 4.875 to 1. Now you must compare this figure to the pot odds. If we use the example at the beginning of this article, in which there was $20 in the pot and your next call is $4, we know the pot odds are exactly 5 to 1. Since this figure is larger than your odds of drawing the needed card (5 to 1 vs. 4.875 to 1), you should fold in this case.
Once you have determined the pot odds, you must now use this information to decide whether or not to continue with your hand. You may do this by applying the odds to the value of your hand and what you think you know about your opponent’s hand(s). You also must consider whether somebody betting after you is likely to add to the pot, thus altering the pot odds. Of course this is impossible to determine with certainty, but you should always be thinking about the likelihood of this occurring.
Final Thoughts
Develop an understanding about the relationship between outs and pot size in order to calculate your pot odds. You should be able to make an instant estimate about whether to continue with a hand or not. This estimate will almost always be correct and when it isn't you won't be giving up too much.
Avoid common pot odds errors like drawing to an inside straight or even a flush or open-ended straight when the pot odds do not justify it.
Although it is one of the most neglected aspects of poker strategy, pot odds is one of most important facets of the game and should never be overlooked.
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